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Uganda Shilling unchanged for a week

Monday June 6, 2011

THE shilling traded unchanged all week in 2389/2395 box, dealers said over the weekend.

“The currency pair lacked any significant market-moving trades, making inter-bank players buy a lazy- chin-held comfort,” Chris Rwengo, the Standard Chartered Bank area head of forex trading for financial markets in East Africa, said in a weekly report.

He explained that the 2400 top-side seems protected by fear of the Central Bank’s possible intervention, while corporate demand below 2390 has kept the currency pair in its box.

“Nonetheless, not all is lost for the shilling looking ahead. Britain has $637m for Uganda’s education and health sectors.

“This comes when there has been donor threats on severely reducing aid to the Uganda Government in the very recent past,” Rwengo added.

“Into next week (this week), we expect the shilling to benefit from the foregoing and barring any new fundamental factors the currency pair is likely to trade in sub 2380, and a focus on 2350 in a closer sight in the short term.”

The shilling was unchanged against the dollar on Wednesday as traders eyed a Treasury Bill auction for clues on the volume of dollar inflows into the debt market.

“The reality is that demand still outweighs supply and traders are doing their very best to keep the shilling below the key 2,400 level,” Mark Bitarabeho, the head of sales at Standard Chartered Bank Uganda, said then.

“There is some buying interest from below 2390 from the companies, but those levels have not yet been reached.”

The Bank of Uganda held a regular auction of Treasury Bills. The weighted yield on Uganda’s 91-day paper rose to 11.351% at the last auction from 10.880 percent previously.

Traders said the last auction failed to attract much interest from foreign investors who are more interested in longer-dated paper.

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